Is Trevor Connelly too risky for the top 10 ? | 2024 NHL Draft
Throughout the 2023-2024 NHL season, TSLH Prospects shares observation reports and prospect profiles on young players eligible for the upcoming draft. Similar to the past four seasons, the columnists produce texts on a significant number of prospects to provide a comprehensive overview of the cohort and its progress. Today, the focus is on Trevor Connelly, a forward playing in the USHL.
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As of writing this 2024 NHL draft prospect profile, Trevor Connelly stands atop his team’s scoring sheet, 17 points ahead of his closest pursuer (54 points in 38 games). I believe this aspect of the winger’s season is crucial to consider in evaluating his game. The prospect is essentially alone talent on his team in terms of talent; no one truly compares to him.
As the #16 for the Tri-City Storm in the USHL, Connelly leaves an impression of selfishness on the ice. His talent is evident, but he holds onto the puck for extended periods. Often, passing options would be better avenues upon entering the zone to simplify the play and bring it more efficiently to the net. Nevertheless, the American prefers to retain possession while circling or maneuvering around defensive players to find the perfect play for his teammates.
It’s commendable that he wants his teammates to finish plays effectively around the net. However, the issue is that this strategy may not align well with professional hockey. Opponents will counter him, and dribbling with the puck for an extended period on the periphery only gives them more time to do so.
Instinctively, I am certain that Trevor Connelly knows his skill level is above average in the USHL. That’s why, in my opinion, he adopts this style of play that complements his various talents. If he delegates more to his line mates early in the opposing territory, the chances of turnovers are higher than if he takes charge himself. Can we really blame him when evaluating his potential? In my view, I can’t ignore it, but I won’t be overly concerned either.
When the winger played internationally, such as at the Hlinka-Gretzky or Junior A, he adapted well to increased adversity. Trevor Connelly showcased his talent as in the USHL while exploiting his teammates effectively. Even if he is a really good goalscrorer, he is primarily a playmaker in my opinion who keeps opponents on their heels, thanks to an elite skating stride that ranks among the top in the 2024 NHL draft. This is evident as soon as he steps onto the ice.
His burst is short, reaching maximum speed in a few strides. In the USHL, this makes him extremely difficult to neutralize in counterattacks or even in offense when exploiting the periphery. Defenders are often destabilized by his speed, and it’s not uncommon to see them lose balance before the prospect even reaches them. Thus, he can be seen outpacing defensemen, attacking the center, going behind the net, or slowing down the game as needed. With him, « dump and chase » plays are quite rare.
In addition to his mobility, one thing that catches the opposing team off guard is that he cheats defensively. This cannot be denied. Trevor Connelly is not the most diligent in limiting enemy attacks. It’s quite the opposite. He remains high in his territory (when he’s there) and minimally involved along the boards, hoping to receive a pass to restart the offensive. In the USHL, this isn’t a significant issue, as it’s undoubtedly part of the coaches’ game plan. In the NCAA and professional hockey, however, I don’t think it will fly.
With his strengths, I believe the young player could become an asset defensively. He just needs to put in the effort (and be coached, of course). Physically, it’s somewhat the same story. Trevor Connelly is 6 feet 1 inch but weighs 161 pounds according to available information. He is slender for his height. Why would he engage physically when he can rely on his energy and talent to outmaneuver his opponents? He does apply body checks in certain situations, but primarily when he knows his target won’t counter him or when it’s the obvious play to separate the puck from the carrier.
Again, I’m not overly concerned about this aspect. With the expected muscle gain in the coming years, that should be resolved. Moreover, there seems to be plenty of room for this gain without affecting his speed. It could even have a more than positive impact on another flaw, in my opinion, which is his shot. There is certainly precision, but the power is lacking. Additionally, Trevor Connelly rarely chooses the option of taking a shot. In my eyes, he would benefit from shooting more frequently at the goalie. Up close, it’s not an issue due to his quick hands that easily deceive. It’s from a distance that I note a deficiency.
He tries too hard to favor the pass with an accumulation of dekes on the periphery or rapid movements in the opposing territory. His teammates have difficulty keeping up, resulting in cross-ice passes that often go awry. If you have 1 or 2 teammates in front of the net with an enemy defender and a screening player trying to block you, the better option might be to take a screened shot.
For Trevor Connelly, this is not a common practice. It would make him even more unpredictable in my opinion, so I’ll be watching to see if he improves this aspect by the end of the season. What’s strange is that he does it very well internationally. Thus, once again, I’m not too concerned about this flaw in the USHL.
For the 2024 NHL draft, I expect to see him go in the top 20. Will a team take the risk in the top 10? I have doubts due to his shortcomings, but the potential for a home run is truly present. We’ve seen much more surprising things happen before. Regarding the article from the Athletics about his past, I think that there will be an effect on certain teams but not all of them. So I don’t take it in consideration for now.
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