James Hagens: a debate for the first overall pick ? – 2025 NHL Draft
Over the last two NHL drafts, it was quite easy to label the very first pick. With talents like Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini, it was hard to displace either of these star in the making to put another name at the top of the list. This season, can we legitimately rule out the name James Hagens from the very first spot?
His name has been associated with this label since last year among some experts. However, starting in the 2023-2024 season, just a year before the ‘Hagens’ draft, opinions were divided. Porter Martone, Michael Misa, and Roger McQueen were showing impressive performances in the CHL. Martone seemed to have an edge over the other two due to his presence at the Under-18 Championship last spring. He scored 17 points in 7 games while serving as captain. Can we still talk about a debate as we approach the draft year for these young players? Are there other candidates who could unseat Hagens from his throne?
Crazy start to the season
It is certain that Porter Martone is still providing reasons to climb to the top tier. His early-season performances are certainly shaking things up. Currently, the Brampton Steelheads forward has accumulated 9 points in 3 games. He continues to impress on the ice, like with his assist on Angus MacDonell’s goal yesterday. Martone, a ‘late’ winger at 6’3″, has everything to please in his hockey player profile.
In the case of Michael Misa, he was slowly being edged out of the top 5 due to the European players who were closing in. Anton Frondell, a Swedish prospect who is unfortunately sidelined for a few weeks, clearly has some arguments to make his case for reaching into that top 5. Will he be able to elevate his game to enter the conversation for the first pick? That will be interesting to see upon his return from injury. But for Misa, the forward has certainly silenced his critics since the start of the season. Last week, he was the Prospect of the Week in TSLH Prospects with 8 points, including 7 goals, in three games. Long regarded as the top prospect in the CHL ahead of the 2025 draft, Misa will clearly be battling Martone and McQueen for that title.
A first pick vote
None of the players previously mentioned received any first-place votes in the poll conducted by Bob McKenzie among NHL scouts. The only prospect to receive such a vote is Roger McQueen. The forward, also a ‘late’ player like Martone due to his October birth, has an enticing build for any scout. Standing at 6’5″, McQueen has made his mark offensively on the ice so far with a production of 9 points in 4 games. Martone and McQueen are in their third season in the CHL. For Misa, this is a third season as well, but due to his exceptional player status received in 2022.
A 1st overall Defenseman?
You’ll understand that the name Ivan Ryabkin, a highly impressive Russian forward on the ice, can also be added. However, one of the names to watch this season comes from the CHL as well. Defenseman Matthew Schaefer, ranked 2nd on Bob McKenzie’s list, seems to be gaining momentum since the Under-18 World Championship. He has continued to deliver excellent performances at the recent Hlinka tournament.
Unfortunately, he is currently sidelined with mononucleosis. His absence could cost him some arguments for the top spot, but if there were to be a surprise at the top of the draft, it would come from Schaefer. The 6’2″ left-shot defenseman has everything it takes to become a #1 defenseman. Five of the ten scouts surveyed by Bob McKenzie recently agreed to place Schaefer at 2nd. And none of those scouts excluded Schaefer from the top 5. The only one not excluded from the top 5? James Hagens.
A #1 spot to lose
My colleague Pascal expressed it well on the TSLH Podcast: Hagens’ rank is up for grabs. Currently, there’s a lot of traction to dethrone James Hagens from the #1 spot. Some amateur observers are moving him down to place Martone or McQueen or even Schaefer higher due to the strong starts of these prospects. However, this is clearly a quick analysis based on the early performances of these players which is often called «recency bias». After all, James Hagens hasn’t played a game yet this season since NCAA schedules haven’t started.
When James Hagens begins at Boston (NCAA), we can dig a bit deeper into the possibility of unseating him. However, the forecasts do not lean in that direction when looking at what awaits him at Boston. Indeed, he will be paired with Gabe Perreault and Ryan Leonard on Boston College’s powerhouse line. In fact, James Hagens will replace Will Smith. This summer at the World Junior Summer Showcase, that unit was pure dynamite.
Hagens’ position is therefore up for grabs, but the competition will be strong at the top. I don’t think the American forward will distance himself from his challengers like Macklin Celebrini did with his NCAA season last year. Porter Martone and Matthew Schaefer would be my two potential candidates to rise to the top. However, there is still a lot of hockey to be played, and for now, based on the overall evaluation over the last two years, Hagens remains #1.
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